OECD 국가의 환경쿠즈네츠 가설 검정: 패널모형과 패널문턱회귀모형의 비교를 중심으로

This study investigated the validity of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis, which analyzes the relationship between economic growth and environmental pollutants. To accomplish this, we compared the results of the traditionally used panel model and the panel threshold regression model using thresholds for 38 OECD countries from 1990 to 2020, and calculated the elasticity of CO2 emissions according to income increase with respect to environmental quality by country. In addition, the commodity nature of environmental quality was determined by measuring the elasticity of CO2 emissions according to income increase for each country. The main results are as follows. First, the increase in GDP per capita decreased per capita CO2 emissions, and the increase in added value in the service industrial sector decreased CO2 emissions, but the increase in urbanization rate was a factor that increased CO2 emissions. Second, the validity of the EKC hypothesis was proven by establishing an inverted U-shape between GDP per capita and CO2 emissions per capita, and it can be seen that CO2 emissions are reduced more sensitively when the threshold of GDP per capita is exceeded. Lastly, the elasticity of CO2 emissions due to economic growth showed various results by country, which shows that the countries that regard environmental quality as a result of income increase as a normal good or a luxury good are mixed. Therefore, this study emphasized that economic growth and regulation of environmental pollutants are essential, not optional, for sustainable development. Also, to prove this, differentiated environmental pollutants by country are identified through the diversification of various analysis methods and models.