지방자치단체 인구 및 재정 상태가 고향사랑기부제에 미치는 영향에 대한 연구 ―답례품을 중심으로―

This paper investigates the performance of the Hometown Love Donation Policy, first implemented in 2023, hypothesizing that local governments, struggling with population decline and revenue shortages, have endeavored to achieve results through this policy by utilizing the number of return gifts as a variable for statistical analysis. Initially, it examines the correlation and regression analysis between the population size, the tax revenue per capita, and the number of return gifts selected by the local governments. Subsequently, it analyzes the statistical relationship between the number of return gifts and both the performance of the donation policy and the sales performance of these gifts. Lastly, it delves into the statistical relationship between the population size, tax revenue per capita, and the donation policy's performance. The findings indicate that municipalities with smaller populations and lower revenue are more likely to diversify their return gifts to enhance donation performance. The influence of population and revenue on the number of return gifts was found to be limited, suggesting that other factors also play a significant role. While population and revenue have a discernible impact on donation or gift sales performance, the extent is relatively minor, possibly due to intermediary processes like gift provision diluting statistical relationships and trends through indirect effects. Statistical analysis clearly demonstrated that a diverse selection of return gifts positively influences donation performance. Therefore, local governments should endeavor to develop and discover a range of return gifts, and central government policies should support financially and demographically challenged local governments in developing these gifts. However, a mere quantitative competition without quality improvement could undermine trust in the system, necessitating countermeasures. Further policy recommendations include extending the tax deduction scope and increasing the proportion of return gifts to improve the effectiveness of the Hometown Love Donation Policy. This study is significant as it is the first to perform a statistical analysis on the impact factors on donation performance utilizing a self-compiled database of return gifts after the policy's implementation.