국내 출산율의 장기적 결정요인에 대한 연구

This paper explores the long-run determinants of fertility rate in Korea using the monthly data from Jan. 2000 to Nov. 2003. Employing ARDL bounds testing approach, we find that there are strong cointegrating relations between fertility rate and several explanatory variables such as marriage rate, employment rate, the costs of private education, and housing jeonse prices. A 1%p increase in marriage rate increases crude birthrate by 2.9%p, verifying that low marriage rate is an essential problem that should be tackled first in order to increase fertility rate. If the employment rate increases by 1%p, the crude birthrate turns out to increase by 0.33%p. When there are changes in the costs of private education and housing jeonse prices each by 1%, the crude birthrate decreases by 0.11%p and 0.05%p respectively. Among the housing price categories, the jeonse price of apartments, rather than the selling price, is more closely related with fertility rate. We also find evidence that women’s wage level and economic participation rate affect fertility rate, but the correlation is relatively weak compared to the above-mentioned factors. Meanwhile, child-care facilities, social securities, and the safeness of a society turn out to be insignificant in most models. The results of the paper reassure the ongoing statements that tasks such as creating decent jobs, providing newly-weds with cozy residences, and reducing the costs of private education should be continuously pursued by the government.