저축은행 건전성과 부동산 시장

In this study, we analyzed the impact of changes in the real estate market on the soundness of savings banks. Specifically, to estimate the factors affecting the NPL ratio of individual savings banks, a random effect model was used with 2,607 panel data on 79 savings banks over 33 quarters from the fourth quarter of 2015 to the fourth quarter of 2023. As a result of the analysis, when the growth rate of housing sales price index was used as a variable representing real estate market fluctuations, it was estimated that the soundness of savings banks worsened as the real estate price growth rate increased in the period up to 2019, before the outbreak of COVID-19. However, in the period after 2020, it was estimated that the soundness of savings banks improved as the real estate price growth rate increased. On the other hand, when the growth rate of commercial land is used as a variable representing real estate market fluctuations, contrary to the results of existing savings bank literature and in line with general predictions, it was estimated that the soundness of savings banks improved as the real estate price growth rate increased, and the size of this effect appeared even larger after 2020.