남아프리카의 경제 성장에 대한 금융 기관의 영향: ARDL 경계 검정 접근법

Financial institutions play a pivotal role in promoting economic growth by allocating capital, attracting investment, and managing risk. This study aims to investigate the impact of financial institutions on economic growth in South Africa from 1980 to 2021. It employs an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to examine both the long-term and short-term effects of financial institutions on the country's economic growth. The findings suggest that financial institutions positively influence long-term economic growth, supporting overall productivity by facilitating increased investment and the expansion of corporate activities. However, financial market volatility can lead to short-term economic uncertainties, potentially exerting negative effects. Additionally, while long-term foreign direct investments (FDI) and other investments generally benefit the economy, they can also yield adverse short-term outcomes. Government expenditures are found to have a negative impact on economic growth in both the short and long term. Conversely, trade may boost short-term growth, while inflation has a detrimental effect in the short term but could be beneficial over the long term. The study emphasizes that while growth and innovation within financial services spur economic development, they may also generate short-term adverse effects. This highlights the need for policymakers to take suitable measures to ensure financial market stability and support sustained economic growth. Furthermore, the research stresses the importance of expanding access to financial services, which is crucial for reducing economic disparities and enhancing social mobility.