실거래 자료를 활용한 우리나라 아파트 시장의 투자수요 식별 및 아파트 가격의 변동 요인 분석*

The purpose of this study is to determine which demand factor, between investment and residential services, has mainly driven apartment prices in Korea. For this purpose, rental-purpose transaction-volume data were constructed based on transaction-level data. Using these data, investment demand, residential demand, and supply shocks were identified using a sign-restricted structural vector autoregression (VAR) model. The constructed rental-purpose transaction volume data showed similar levels and trends to comparable but shorter data calculated from the administrative data. The main results suggest that apartment prices in Korea fluctuate significantly because of changes in investment demand. This implies that Korea’s apartments have been used not only as consumption goods but also as investment assets. For example, during the peak time of real apartment prices in the COVID-19 pandemic period, investment, residential demand, and supply shocks explained 37.4%, 47.5%, and 15.1% of the price levels, respectively. This study differs from the extant literature in two ways. First, it constructs reliable rental-purpose transaction volume data over a relatively long period. Second, based on these data, the demand for apartments has been divided into investment and residential demand.