벡터오차수정모형을 이용한 시기별 미분양주택 영향요인 분석

Unsold housing is one of the most important housing market indicators. Depending on the timing and scale of unsold housing, the supply and demand for housing can be judged, and this can be a good indicator of the housing market. This study investigates the correlation between the housing sales price index, housing rental price index, mortgage interest rate, money supply, consumer price index, exchange rate, and housing construction permit performance and the number of unsold housing units. The vector error correction model was used to analyze the impact response, and the results revealed that housing construction license performance and mortgage interest rates were the most influential variables in the unsold housing volume determinant model from 2008 to 2023. The most influential variables in the model from 2008 to 2010 during the global financial crisis were mortgage interest rates and exchange rates. The most influential variable in the post-pandemic period (2021 to 2023) was mortgage interest rates . The results of the variance decomposition analysis indicate that mortgage interest rates are an influential factor in determining the overall volume of unsold housing, which is similar to the results of the shock response analysis.