기업 간 거래 모형 설정을 통한 매출채권보험의 연쇄부도 방지 효과 측정

This study examines the contribution of Insurance for Trade Receivables to maintaining the stability and continuity of small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) management in trading networks involving multiple sellers and buyers. In particular, SMEs are highly affected by the financial condition of their counterparties as well as their own financial condition during economic downturns. We construct a large transaction network matrix for all SMEs and analyze the effectiveness of Insurance for Trade Receivables in preventing cascading defaults by employing a hypothetical model. The main findings are as follows. First, Insurance for Trade Receivables is estimated to prevent the default of 4.6% of all firms in the trading network, or roughly 1 in 20. The estimated total value of receivables protected from default is KRW 4.4 trillion. Second, firms with higher dependency on inter-firm transactions or larger firm age were found to be more vulnerable to cascading defaults. Third, the ripple effect of cascading defaults was more pronounced for companies that are vertically affiliated with the firm receiving the insurance payout. These findings suggest that Insurance for Trade Receivables can effectively contribute not only to the financial stability of individual companies, but also to the stability of the entire trading network, which ultimately contributes to the stability of the national economy.