분야별 정부 R&D 투자의 시차효과 연구: 특허와 사업화 성과를 중심으로

In conducting the performance evaluation of national R&D projects, considering the performance calculation period is often insufficient. Therefore, accounting for time lags is essential when analyzing the relationship between performance and R&D investment, given the inherent uncertainties. This study estimates the lag effect of government R&D investment on patent applications and commercialization performance using the Almon lag distribution model, based on task and performance data from 2016 to 2020. As a result of the analysis, the number of patent applications for all government R&D showed the greatest lag effect after one year from investment, and the number of commercialization showed the greatest lag effect in the second to third years of investment. In the case of patent applications, the parallax effect was the largest one year after investment in all detailed fields, and in the case of commercialization, chemicals, and chemicals were 4 years, electronic components, computers, video, sound and communication equipment, medical, precision, optical devices and watches, agriculture, forestry and fishing were 2 years, energy and health were 2 to 3 years, and the environment was 2 years.