중국정부 재정지출이 가계 소비에 미치는 크라우딩 효과

This paper established an empirical analysis model based on the theoretical basis of previous studies on the Crowding In effect and Crowding Out effect of government fiscal expenditure, and analyzed housing guarantee expenditure, cultural sports, and media expenditure, which are important areas that were not noted in previous studies. This study analyzed 26 government fiscal expenditures through panel data published by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, selected two important expenditure indicators: social security and housing guarantee expenditure and cultural sports and media expenditure, and constructed a model to perform empirical analysis by adding real estate tax, regional area, administrative power, and surplus as control variables. The results of the study are summarized as follows. First, the government's housing guarantee expenditure was found to have a significant positive (+) effect on rural household consumption, and the increase in the government's housing guarantee expenditure was analyzed to increase rural household consumption. Second, cultural sports and media expenditures were found to have a significant positive (+) effect on rural household consumption. Third, the real estate tax was found to have a significant negative (-) effect on rural household consumption, and the increase in the real estate tax was reducing rural household consumption. Fourth, urban areas were found to have a significant negative (-) effect on rural household consumption, and rural household consumption was decreasing due to the increase in urban areas. Finally, it was found that surplus had a significant positive (+) effect on rural household consumption. The contribution of this paper is to find that the government's spending on housing guarantees and the expansion of spending on cultural sports and media promotes rural household consumption by generating a crowd-in effect, leading to sound economic development.