인구 고령화와 지방 재정지출이 산출 및 고용에 미치는 영향 분석

As the proportion of the elderly population increases, it becomes necessary to evaluate the effectiveness and efficiency of local government expenditure. This study analyzes the impact of social and economic development expenditures in local government finances from 2001 to 2019 on regional output and employment in conjunction with the aging population. The key findings indicate that social development spending has a negative impact on regional output and employment, while economic development spending has a positive impact. However, as aging progresses, it is estimated that the negative impact of social development spending will decrease, and the positive impact of economic development spending will be offset, resulting in a net negative (-) effect. These results suggest that although the increase in social development spending due to expanding welfare demands may strain local finances, the increase in elderly employment and consumption is expected to have a positive impact on output. The offsetting effect of the negative impact of social development spending on output due to the aging population provides policy implications for adjusting the allocation and expenditure structure of economic and social development budgets as we enter the era of super-aged societies.