한국의 특허출원, R&D, 경제성장, 정부 간의 역동적 상호작용

This paper focuses on the recent rise in patent applications in Korea and aims to investigate the relationships among patents, R&D, economic growth, and government policies. Unlike most previous studies, which mainly explore one-way relationships among these factors, this study identifies the dynamic interactions using a vector autoregressive model, Granger causality test, impulse response function, and forecast error variance decomposition. Based on these analyses, three key findings were obtained. First, economic growth positively influences patent applications; however, it remains unconfirmed whether patent applications positively influence economic growth. Second, R&D spending and government policies related to patents positively affect patent applications. Third, patent applications are influenced by government policies in the short term and by GDP and R&D in the medium to long term, with past patent applications acting as a baseline effect. These findings imply that the recent surge in Korean patent applications is attributable to government support for small and medium-sized enterprises. However, unless special measures are taken, this effect will diminish within two to three years, and ultimately, the future of patent applications in Korea will be determined by the country's economic conditions and the intensity of R&D activities.