종부세 과세가 여당 후보 득표에 미친 영향분석: 20대 대선 이재명 후보의 득표율을 중심으로

This study analyses the impact of property price fluctuations on election outcomes. According to classical economic voting theory, homeowners will vote retrospectively in favor of the ruling party as their asset value increases. On the other hand, houseless persons are predicted to have a negative attitude towards the ruling party as the burden of purchasing home increases in the future and the price of renting or leasing increases. However, in reality, single-family homeowners cannot benefit from buying and selling, and multi-family homeowners will be more dissatisfied with the ruling party as their tax burden will increase due to the strengthening of the death tax. They are much more sensitive to stamp duty because it is an annual tax on unrealized gains in addition to property taxes. This study adds taxes to the equation and finds that ad valorem taxes have a significant impact on electoral outcomes through empirical analysis. Instead of focusing only on the 20th presidential election, we conducted a dynamic analysis by comparing the difference in the vote share of the ruling party candidates in the 19th and 20th presidential elections, using the variables of changes in real estate factors and changes in vote share.