체납조세 압류재산의 자진납부가능성 및 공매낙찰가능성 추정

This study aims to empirically estimate the likelihood of voluntary payments by tax delinquents, using information on delinquent tax-seized properties entrusted to KAMCO for public auction services by the National Tax Service between 2004 and 2023, and to calculate the probability of winning a public auction in advance. First, the analysis of the likelihood of voluntary payment of property seized for delinquent taxes indicated that most explanatory variables-such as the type of entrusted institution, property use, region of the property, gender of the delinquent, age and so on-were statistically significant. It was confirmed that the probability of voluntary payment can be largely estimated by considering the characteristics of the property seized for delinquent tax. Next, the results of estimating the probability of winning a public auction for property seized due to delinquent taxes showed statistical significance across all explanatory variables including property use, location, appraisal value, bid price ratio, and information on similar auctions and public auctions. Consequently, it was confirmed that the likelihood of winning a public auction can be effectively predicted in advance by utilizing information on properties seized for delinquent tax. This study makes a significant contribution by empirically estimating the likelihood of voluntary payment and the probability of winning a public auction for each case, using public auction information held by KAMCO, which administers public auctions for property seized due to delinquent taxes. By elucidating the causes of these phenomena, this study offers important implications for establishing an efficient approach to conducting the public auction service.