지정학적 리스크가 메모리 산업에 미치는 영향: 삼성전자와 SK하이닉스의 시나리오 분석을 통한 지정학적 리스크 분석

The escalation of tensions between the United States and China is amplifying geopolitical risks for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, which run semiconductor fabs in China. The present paper employs the scenario-analysis approach to examine how the outbreak of a war between the two countries could affect the long-term sustainability of their memory businesses. We assume that the war will lead these firms to suspend their businesses in China. We then assess the impact of this war on their memory businesses. Our findings suggest that Samsung Electronics is likely to emerge as a winner, whereas SK Hynix as a loser. The contrasting results stem from their strategic choices in coping with shifting geopolitical environments. SK Hynix has increased its exposure to geopolitical risks by continuously expanding its DRAM and NAND Flash memory production capacity in China. In contrast, Samsung Electronics has concentrated its DRAM production facilities in South Korea, thereby maintaining lower exposure to geopolitical risks. Furthermore, since the industry boom in 2017, SK Hynix has weakened its financial strength by making aggressive investments with heavy leverage, whereas Samsung Electronics minimized the use of leverage. We find that exposure to geopolitical vulnerabilities and financial strength turn out to be two critical factors in determining the winners and losers in the face of rising geopolitical risks.