Flammap을 활용한 강원지역 산불 위험성 분석에 관한 연구

This study aims to analyze the forest fire risk in the Gangwon region using FlamMap, a fire behavior prediction software. The research focuses on the large-scale wildfire that occurred in Gangneung on April 11, 2023. By comparing the actual fire spread data with the simulation results, the accuracy of the FlamMap model was evaluated. The actual fire exhibited a flame length of 5 to 10 meters, with a maximum of 15 meters, while the simulation predicted a range of 3.35 to 6.10 meters. The rate of spread in the actual fire reached up to 40 meters per minute, whereas the simulation forecasted a maximum of 27 meters per minute. Fireline intensity during the first 180 minutes reached 50,000 kW/m in the actual fire, while the simulation results varied between 3,500 and 25,000 kW/m, with some sections reaching up to 50,000 kW/m. Additionally, the actual fire reached nearby residential areas within 3 hours, while the simulation estimated a time range of 503 to 720 minutes. These discrepancies highlight the need for incorporating dynamic weather data and region-specific fuel conditions in future simulations for more accurate fire predictions. The findings suggest that improvements in the simulation process could enhance fire prevention and response strategies in forest fire-prone regions like Gangwon.