상권매출액 변화를 통한 서울시 도시재생 사업의 실효성 분석 - 시공간 패널모형과 성향점수매칭 이중차분법을 활용하여 -

Urban regeneration has gained prominence as a leading urban development strategy in advanced economies, implemented as a national policy in South Korea with substantial financial and human resources since 2013. However, its perceived low performance relative to the resources invested has prompted extensive debate on the effectiveness of these initiatives, and there remains a lack of research providing clear insights into their economic spillover effects on surrounding areas. This study examines the economic impact of urban regeneration projects by focusing on commercial areas in Seoul from 2019 to 2023. Using Propensity Score Matching, comparable commercial areas with similar characteristics were selected within and outside urban regeneration zones. The Difference-in- Differences method was then applied to compare changes in sales per unit area across these areas. To determine the model best suited for the data, General Linear Regression, Fixed Effects, and Random Effects models were applied and compared, with the Fixed Effects model ultimately selected as optimal. Through this model, we conducted an in-depth analysis of the economic effects by type of urban regeneration project. The results indicate that neighborhood-type urban regeneration projects had no significant effect on changes in surrounding commercial sales, while city center and economic base regeneration projects demonstrated an increase in sales per unit area compared to pre-project levels. This study is significant in that it quantitatively analyzes the economic effects of urban regeneration on commercial vitality, using Propensity Score Matching and a Difference-in-Differences approach within a Panel Model to provide robust, evidence-based insights.