생존분석을 통한 연쇄방화 범죄자의 재범예측에 관한 연구 - 교정심리검사 중심으로 -

Through survival analysis, this study attempted to ascertain the distribution of time in the process of serial arson and which psychological characteristics are useful in predicting serial arson. First, the time from the date of the most recent type of release to the date of admission was identified for the same type of arson offenders, which was defined as survival time, and then the predictive factors for recidivism were analyzed based on the evaluation scores of the Korea Correction Personal Inventory administered at the time of commitment. Survival analysis was conducted on 112 domestic arson offenders for a period of approximately 15 years, and the results showed that a significant number of them reoffended with the same type of arson offense within approximately 3 years, and the highest recidivism rate during the first year after their release from prison. Furthermore, utilizing the subscales of the Korea Correction Personal Inventory to identify predictors of serial arson, the study found that the factors that significantly influenced survival time were aggressivity, delinquency, and abandonment. Thus, the significance of this study is that it empirically tested what are the powerful predictors that influence the length of time before serial arson occurs and extended the discussion of psychological characteristics shared by serial arson offenders.