거시경제변수가 PF 연체율에 미치는 영향

In the case of commercial banks, business is carried out in the form of loans to secondary financial institutions such as securities companies, and secondary financial institutions re-loan to businesses through loan funds from commercial banks. As the overall real estate PF insolvency scale increases, risks in the financial market also accompany it. I do it. In this study, we attempt to approach the real estate PF loan size and delinquency rate from a comprehensive perspective based on data from all commercial banks. Accordingly, we attempted to conduct short- and long-term analysis and derive implications through macroeconomic variables that reflect the trends and conditions of the financial market. As a result of the analysis, the rise in interest rates can lead to a decline in the initial PF delinquency rate through strengthened re-examination by banks and management of business sites, but the continuous increase in loan interest may lead to an increase in the PF delinquency rate in the long term. In addition, as a result of variance decomposition analysis, the PF loan amount and the housing sales price index affect the PF delinquency rate over time. Ultimately, when the real estate market is booming, it is insensitive to the PF delinquency rate due to the reality of real estate supply, but when the economy declines and the speed of recovery slows, it is insensitive to the PF delinquency rate. The PF delinquency rate may increase due to external and internal factors over a long period of time.