주택시장의 소비자심리, 주택공급, 대출금리, 주택가격 간의 영향 관계 분석을 통한 효과적인 주택정책의 입법적 개선방안 연구

Abstract This study aims to present more effective housing policy improvement measures by analyzing the impact relationship between consumer sentiment, loan interest rates, housing supply, and housing prices, which are the main components of the housing market, to increase the predictability of housing market fluctuations. To this end, the ripple effect between loan interest rates, housing supply, consumer sentiment index, and housing prices was analyzed by applying the SVAR model. As a result of the analysis, it was found that the shock of consumer sentiment intersected with a strong positive (+) response to housing prices, a strong negative (-) and positive (+) response to housing supply and loan interest rates in the short term, and a negative (-) response to the shock of loan interest rates. In addition to consumer sentiment, housing prices showed weak influence from other factors, but among them, they showed a negative (-) response to the shock of loan interest rates. Consumer sentiment and loan interest rates responded negatively to the shock of housing supply, but the effect was weak, and loan interest rates responded weakly to the shock of consumer sentiment and housing prices. In summary, the housing market was found to fluctuate around consumer sentiment, and it was analyzed that policies to raise loan interest rates or expand housing supply were needed to stabilize the housing market. However, while policy authorities' policies to stabilize the housing market can work as intended by policy authorities, policies on loan amount limits, interest rates, and housing supply are very limited, so supplementary policies are needed.