바이오베터와 일반 신약의 기술이전 가치평가 비교: 바이오텍 경영자의 전략적 관점에서

Biobetters are biologic drugs with enhanced efficacy, safety, and convenience compared to conventional biopharmaceuticals. They are characterized by shorter development timelines and higher clinical success rates, which may lead to greater licensing value. However, research on biobetter licensing remains limited. This study compares the licensing valuation of biobetters and conventional new drugs through a case study and quantitatively analyzes their economic value. The analysis assumes equal target market size, market penetration rate, and market growth rate for both drug types, with identical total upfront and milestone payments in licensing agreements. The key differences are that biobetters have a 5% royalty rate compared to 10% for new drugs and are assumed to have higher clinical success rates, shorter development periods, and lower costs. The results show that biobetter licensing has an 84% higher risk-adjusted net present value (rNPV) than conventional new drug licensing. Specifically, rNPV from upfront and milestone payments is 113% higher, while rNPV from royalties is 55% higher for biobetters. Sensitivity analysis reveals that rNPV is most influenced by clinical success rates and total deal value, and even with a lower royalty rate, biobetters maintain a higher rNPV if total deal value remains constant. This study provides a quantitative assessment of biobetter licensing value and offers practical insights for biotech firms in strategic decision-making.