신약 기술이전에서 최적 선급금, 마일스톤, 로열티 결정 문제: 바이오텍 관점에서

This study focuses on deriving the optimal structure of upfront payments, milestone payments, and royalties in drug licensing agreements from the perspective of biotech companies. The Korean pharmaceutical and biotech industry has experienced rapid growth in recent years, with a steady increase in successful licensing cases. However, there is still a lack of systematic studies addressing optimal licensing strategies from a biotech perspective. Drug development is characterized by significant time and financial investments, low success rates, and high market uncertainty. In this context, the structure of licensing agreements plays a critical role in helping biotechs recover their initial investments and achieve long-term financial stability. This study employs risk-adjusted net present value (rNPV) and decision tree analyses to propose optimal licensing terms by incorporating practical factors such as clinical success probabilities, market size, development costs, and market penetration rates. Through case studies, the study quantitatively evaluates the impact of different distributions of upfront payments, milestone payments, and royalties on the financial performance of biotechs. Sensitivity analyses further reveal that variables increasing future cash flows—such as market size, penetration, and growth rates— favor higher royalty proportions, whereas variables reducing future cash flows, such as discount rates, benefit from emphasizing upfront and milestone payments.