청년취업인턴제가 대졸자의 노동시장 성과에 미치는 이질적 효과 분석:X-learner 기반 처치효과 추정

This study analyzes the impact of the Youth Employment Internship Program on labor market outcomes for college graduates and examines its heterogeneous effects across participant characteristics. Using data from the 2020 Graduates Occupational Mobility Survey(GOMS), X-learner was applied, employing random forest as the base-learner to estimate conditional average treatment effects(CATE). The analysis reveals that program participants had a 24.5 percentage point higher employment probability and a 19.4 percentage point higher regular employment probability compared to non-participants, demonstrating its effectiveness in improving both employment rates and job quality. The examination of heterogeneous treatment effects shows that four-year university graduates experienced slightly higher effects than those from two- or three-year colleges, and students majoring in natural sciences and engineering benefited more than those in arts, humanities, and social sciences. Regionally, Gyeonggi Province graduates showed higher effects than other provinces. Socioeconomic factors, such as parental income and education, also significantly influenced policy effectiveness. This study empirically demonstrates the program’s heterogeneous effects across different participant groups. Identifying these differential impacts provides practical insights to enhance the effectiveness and equity of youth employment policies.