건설·부동산 PF위험의 시스템위험 전이현상 분석과 정책대안

The purpose of this study is to find policy alternatives by identifying the causes and phenomena in which domestic PF projects increase the risk of insolvency in construction companies and the financial sector and expand into systemic risk during macroeconomic downturns. Korean PF loses the non-recourse nature by strengthening credit enhancement, such as completion guarantee by the construction company, and increases the risk of business stranding in the event of an economic turnaround due to financing shorter than the project period. In order to analyze the actual phenomenon of PF risk being transferred to systemic risk, firstly logit regression and regression analysis were performed on the correlation between construction company default and PF delinquency rate(Micro analysis), secondly the impact of these PF risks on real construction investment and financial bank soundness were conducted using a finite lag model.(Macro analysis) As a result of the analysis, construction company default and PF delinquency rate increase each other’s risk. A 1% increase in construction company default lowered construction investment by 3.5 trillion won and worsened bank soundness by 0.95%. A 1% increase in PF delinquency rate reduced construction investment by 0.52 trillion won. In order for PF project to become a sound means of construction production in Korea, alternatives were presented in terms of capital stabilization, risk diversification, and improvement of business conditions.