The Impact of External Guarantees on Analysts' Forecast Errors in the Presence of Information Asymmetry: Evidence from Chinese Firms

This study investigates the impact of external guarantees and tax avoidance on analysts' forecast errors in the presence of information asymmetry. Using a dataset comprising 16,699 firm-year observations of non-financial firms listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges from 2008 to 2020, we analyze how these factors affect the accuracy and dispersion of analysts' forecasts. Our findings reveal that firms with external guarantees experience greater forecast errors, indicating that such guarantees introduce additional complexity and opacity into financial statements. Moreover, significant tax avoidance exacerbates these errors, suggesting that aggressive tax strategies deepen information asymmetry and increase uncertainty in analysts' forecasts. To address potential endogeneity issues, particularly sample selection bias, we employ the Heckman two-stage method. The results confirm that external guarantees are associated with higher forecast errors, even after accounting for selection bias. This study contributes to the literature by highlighting the need for improved financial disclosures among firms with external guarantees and aggressive tax strategies. Additionally, it underscores the critical role of financial analysts in mitigating information asymmetry and provides regulatory implications for enhancing transparency and disclosure practices. Despite its comprehensive approach, the study acknowledges limitations related to unobservable factors and suggests avenues for future research to explore other dimensions affecting forecast errors in various economic and regulatory contexts.