경기도 재난방재･민방위 예산변동 분석, 1976∼2023: 단절적 균형의 발견과 설명을 중심으로

This study aimed to analyze the budget fluctuation patterns in the field of disaster prevention and civil defense in Gyeonggi Province from the establishment of the Civil Defense Corps (1975) to the recent period (2023) from the perspective of the punctuated equilibrium theory, and to derive measures to enhance the effectiveness of disaster safety budget planning and allocation. The analysis revealed that the budget showed abrupt fluctuations influenced by specific social and political events. In the early stages of the Civil Defense Corps’ establishment, North Korea’s activities against South Korea and the reorganization of central administrative bodies were major contributing factors. From the 1990s, the expansion of civil defense functions led to an increase in the budget, and in the 2000s, significant focal events were decisive factors for sharp budget increases. As suggested by the punctuated equilibrium theory, the budget fluctuation rates followed a leptokurtic distribution, though the frequency of punctuated changes was relatively high. The time series analysis identified three instances where specific events had a sustained impact on the budget beyond short-term intervention effects. The findings emphasize the need for a more strategic prioritization of agenda-setting and an efficient processing system in Gyeonggi Province’s disaster prevention and civil defense budget planning. It suggests that in the early stages of policy design, a comprehensive exploration of information and problem definition is necessary to preemptively capture punctuated changes