부동산 수요 정책이 대구광역시 아파트 가격에 미치는 영향 분석

This study empirically analyzed the effects of financial variables (mortgage interest rates and loan amounts) and real estate demand policies [debt service ratio (DSR) regulations, designation of speculative zones and unsold housing management areas] on apartment prices in Daegu on the basis of time-series data from January 2015 to September 2024. Since 2020, Daegu has been a highly volatile market which has gone through short-time surge and slump. This study examined the combination of policies and regional characteristics. With the vector error correction model, the study evaluated short-term and long-term effects of financial and administrational variables through unit root tests, cointegration tests, impulse response, variance decomposition and Grangercausality tests. Results showed interest rates had the strongest impact on apartment prices, while loan amounts followed price trends with a lag. The DSR regulations reduced the prices about 16 months after implementation. Designation of speculative zones initially raised them but led to a decline over time, while designation of unsold housing areas delayed its effects. These findingsshowed that identical measures could bring about different impacts according to local market conditions and highlighted the need for tailored policies that reflect market conditions, timing and policy coordination rather than uniform approaches nationwide.