스발바르 군도의 법적 지위와 지정학적 갈등: 합리적 선택 신제도주의적 분석

This study analyzes the legal status and geopolitical tensions surrounding the Svalbard archipelago through the lens of rational choice institutionalism. While the 1920 Svalbard Treaty granted sovereignty to Norway, it established equal economic rights for treaty signatories, including Russia, leading to ongoing disputes over interpretation. In recent developments, Norway has sought to establish an Exclusive Economic Zone around Svalbard based on UNCLOS, while Russia strongly opposes this move, citing the Svalbard Treaty. The paper employs rational choice institutionalist theory to examine how Norway and Russia strategically utilize international law to maximize their national interests, and how legal conflicts interconnect with geopolitical dynamics. Key analytical focuses include legal ambiguities between UNCLOS and the Svalbard Treaty, strategic legal interpretation by states, Arctic resource competition, and military tensions. We conclude that the Svalbard dispute is unlikely to be resolved soon, with outcomes dependent on potential international court rulings, multilateral negotiations, Arctic military tensions, and third-party state involvement, particularly China.