코로나19 충격이 국내 외감기업의 부실위험에 미친 영향: 재무비율 분석을 통한 로짓 모형 접근

This study estimates corporate default risk using a logit model based on key financial ratios of externally audited firms in Korea and empirically analyzes the impact of the COVID-19 shock. The results show that the average default risk slightly declined in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic, primarily due to a reduction in risk among high-risk firms. The impact of the pandemic differed by firm size and industry. While large firms experienced an increase in average default risk, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) saw a modest decline, likely reflecting the effects of government support programs. By industry, default risk increased significantly in face-to-face service sectors such as accommodation, food, and transportation, whereas certain non-contact service industries and electronics manufacturing maintained or improved financial soundness. After the outbreak, the mitigating effects of growth and liquidity on default risk weakened, while the importance of capital structure stability increased, with its influence varying across industries. These findings suggest that, in future economic crises, differentiated policy responses – aimed at strengthening firms’ capital structures and tailored to industry-specific characteristics – may prove more effective than broad-based liquidity support.