아파트 역전세가 전세보증사고에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구

Chonsei prices peaked in 2021 and have steadily declined, reaching a low point in 2023. This triggered a reverse chonsei phenomenon, where landlords were unable to return deposits to tenants, resulting in a surge of chonseideposit defaults. This study examines how the recent reverse chonsei phenomenon in the apartment market affects the defaults of chonsei deposit. For empirical analysis, we employ panel data from 100 local administrative units (si/gun/gu), spanning 17 months from August 2022 to December 2023. We first conduct the Hausman test to determine whether the fixed effects or random effects model is more appropriate for the analysis. Seven regions within the metropolitan area with frequent chonsei guarantee accidents were selected, and empirical analysis was conducted using the Hausman-Taylor estimator. We find that reverse chonsei leads to an increase in the amount, number, and ratio of chonsei guarantee accidents, driven by a rise in leasehold right registration orders. In particular, the following areas exhibit high sensitivity to chonsei guarantee accidents: Gwangju-si, Gyeonggi-do; Michuhol-gu, Incheon; Namdong-gu, Incheon; and Bupyeong-gu, Incheon. The sharp decline in chonsei prices in 2023 led to a reverse chonsei phenomenon, resulting in widespread cases of tenants being unable to recover their chonsei deposits. Accordingly, this study provides policy implications for preventing and mitigating chonsei guarantee accidents by analyzing the impact of apartment reverse chonsei on their occurrence.