경기상태별 부동산 개발사업의 사고율 특성과 건설·부동산 경제에 미치는 영향 분석

This study empirically examines the difference in the failure rates of real-estate development projects across economic phases and assesses its dynamic effect on construction and real-estate economic activities. Using data from more than 510,000 contract guarantees issued between 2015 and 2024 by the Korea Construction Guarantee, this study classifies projects into public works, general private projects, and real-estate developments. Results show that development projects exhibit average failure rates that are five to seven times higher than those of other types, particularly during recession and peak periods. Empirical analysis using vector autoregressive and finite lag models reveals that project failures are associated closely with macroeconomic cycles. Development-project failures increase during economic recoveries and growths, typically owing to overinvestment, thus resulting in elevated default risks in subsequent downturns. These failures exert a statistically significant short-term negative effect on construction orders and completions, in addition to a mid-term oscillating effect on construction GDP. Specifically, the failure rates during downturn phases reduce the number of construction activities. These findings emphasize the necessity for preemptive risk management, stronger oversight of project finance structures, and more sophisticated project feasibility evaluations aligned with economic cycles to enhance stability in the construction and real-estate sectors.