정비사업이 인근 지역의 전세 가격에 미치는 영향

This study analyzes the impact of demolition and completion associated with urban redevelopment projects on nearby jeonse (long-term rental deposit) prices. By employing a repeat sales model at the transaction-pair level, the analysis overcomes the spatial and temporal limitations of previous studies based on administrative district-level data. The results indicate that for every 1,000 demolished housing units, jeonse prices within a 1 km radius declined by up to 1.05% eight months prior to demolition, followed by a short-term increase of 0.69% six months after demolition. However, prices fell by 0.64% 16 months after demolition. These findings suggest that while a temporary price increase may result from a reduced housing supply, a long-term decline can follow due to the deterioration of neighborhood amenities. In contrast, for every 1,000 newly completed housing units, jeonse prices within 1 km fell by up to 0.78% three months after completion, but they rebounded by 1.16% 12 months later. This resulted in a cumulative 1.94% increase over a nine-month period following the initial drop, likely driven by renewed housing demand and expectations of improved local infrastructure. These findings provide valuable insight for policy decisions aimed at promoting stability in the rental housing market.