주요 교역국의 ESG 탄소 지표와 경제 수준이 우리나라 수출에 미치는 장기적 영향에 관한 분석- OECD와 비OECD 국가 비교 중심으로

Since the 1960s, Korea has pursued an export-oriented growth strategy, achieving top-tier economic status by 2023. However, environmental regulations driven by climate change and global warming are reshaping global trade dynamics, requiring new export strategies. This study explores the long-term impact of trading partners’ CO2 emissions and economic development on Korea’s exports. Theoretical frameworks include the EKC and the STIRPAT model. Panel data from 1989 to 2023 for 20 major trading partners (excluding Hong Kong, the Netherlands, and Singapore) are used. A VECM is applied to assess long-run equilibrium relationships, and countries are categorized into OECD and non-OECD groups to compare results. Findings indicate that per capita GDP positively influences exports across all groups (β=2.56), with a stronger effect in non-OECD countries (β=6.35). The squared GDP term is significantly negative in non-OECD countries (β=–5.50), supporting the EKC hypothesis. Per capita CO2 emissions negatively affect exports in all groups (β=–1.89 overall; β=–4.04 in OECD; β=–8.33 in non-OECD). Industrial CO₂ emissions have a positive impact in OECD countries (β=4.38) but a negative impact in non-OECD countries (β=–1.72). These results suggest that Korea’s exports are sensitive to both the economic and environmental characteristics of partner countries. Customized strategies reflecting industrial structure and carbon intensity are needed, along with a transition to low-carbon export structures. The findings provide empirical grounds for formulating differentiated trade policies that align with the carbon profiles and development stages of trading partners, offering practical insights for Korea’s export sustainability under global climate constraints.