지방자치단체의 계획적 재정운용이 지방재정 건전성에 미친 영향

This study analyzes the impact of fiscal planning on fiscal soundness in local governments. In recent years, Korea’s local finances have faced persistent fiscal challenges, such as declining tax revenues and rising debt. Reduced local tax revenues and national tax shortfalls, which have led to reductions in equalization grants, have constrained local governments' fiscal operations. To address this, the Medium-Term Local Fiscal Plan (MTLFP), introduced in 1990, serves as a key mechanism for local governments to formulate mid- to long-term fiscal strategies and allocate resources efficiently. However, concerns over its ineffectiveness and formalistic operation continue to be raised. This study uses data from 243 local governments over the period 2015–2022 to empirically examine the relationship between errors in the implementation rate of the MTLFP and fiscal soundness. The results reveal that for basic-level local governments, larger errors in the implementation rate of the MTLFP negatively impact fiscal soundness. In contrast, metropolitan-level local governments showed no statistically significant effects. Additionally, a higher ratio of unexecuted funds (carryover and unused budgets) deteriorates fiscal soundness. Furthermore, when the ratio of unexecuted funds is high, the negative impact of errors in the MTLFP on fiscal soundness becomes more pronounced, indicating a moderating effect. The findings suggest that merely improving the accuracy of fiscal plans is insufficient for enhancing fiscal soundness. A systematic link between fiscal planning and budget execution is essential, and fiscal soundness can be improved only when planned budgets are implemented consistently. In particular, basic-level local governments often lack the capacity for accurate revenue estimation and expenditure planning, relying heavily on upper-level governments. Therefore, targeted policy support is needed to enhance their fiscal planning capabilities. Policy implications of this study include the following: First, education programs and technical support should be provided to improve the expertise of local governments in formulating MTLFPs. Second, management systems for the budget execution process must be strengthened, and a feedback loop linking planning, execution, and evaluation should be established. By addressing these issues, the MTLFP can effectively contribute to improving the fiscal soundness of local governments.