ESG 규제가 국내 은행의 대출 포트폴리오와 금융 안정성에 미치는 영향

This study examines how ESG financial policies and ESG bond issuance (green, social, and sustainability bonds) affect Korean banks’ industrylevel loan portfolios, profitability, and financial stability. We build a quarterly panel dataset for 22 banks―including nationwide, regional, internetonly, and policy banks-from 2012Q1 to 2024Q4, and estimate fixedeffects panel regressions. Variables include industry loans, ROA, non-performing loan (NPL) ratio, BIS capital ratio, LCR, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, ESG bond issuance, and macro controls. Main findings are threefold. (1) Portfolio dynamics: The loan share to agriculture/forestry/ fishing shows a mild upward trend, while manufacturing declines; higher GHG emissions are associated with a lower loan share to construction, indicating climateriskaware reallocation. (2) Climate risk: Rising emissions significantly worsen NPL ratios, whereas shortrun effects on ROA and LCR are insignificant. (3) ESG finance: ESG bond issuance significantly increases the BIS capital ratio, but shows no shortrun effect on ROA, LCR, or NPLs. Conversely, higher emissions reduce the BIS ratio, implying that ESG finance alone may not fully offset climaterisk shocks. The contribution lies in jointly identifying a climaterisktoassetquality channel (via NPLs) and an ESGbondtocapitaladequacy channel for Korean banks, providing evidencebased implications. Policywise, strengthening ESG bond market development should be coupled with climaterisk management frameworks (standardized disclosures, taxonomyaligned guidance, and financedemissions reporting). Limitations include the small number of ESGbond observations and crossreporting inconsistencies; banklevel, granular disclosures are needed for future research.