전망이론 기반 부동산 거래량 결정 모형 연구

This study develops and empirically tests a new prospect-theoretic model for analyzing transaction volume in housing markets. Extending the traditional two-dimensional focus on price changes, we introduce a new three-dimensional unit prospect value that jointly prices two key benefits: 1) secure occupancy benefits, proxied by the deposit-to-price ratio (DPR) for Jeonse (a Korean lump-sum deposit lease system), and 2) uncertain capital-gain benefits, proxied by the price-growth to required- rate-of-return ratio (PGRRRR). Derived from a vector decomposition of cash-flow (rent) and capital-gains components and incorporating Kahneman-Tversky decision weights, the model predicts that monthly transaction volume is an increasing function of the maximum buyer minus minimum seller unit prospect value. The resulting equation expresses transaction volume as a weighted sum of DPR and PGRRRR, effectively integrating search frictions, transaction-cost, liquidity constraints, and prospect value into a unified model. Using 203 monthly observations (from February 2008 to December 2024) for the Seoul apartment market, we estimate the model using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. Standardized betas are 0.14 for Jeonse-ratio and 0.49 for price-growth-to-required-rate-of-return ratio. The results confirm that capital-gain expectations drive the well-known price–volume “synchronization” while secure-occupancy gains account for its time-varying strength. The model reconciles disparate findings from search, transaction-cost, down-payment-constraint and behavioral literature; offers a closed-form, policy-ready simulator of volume responses to tax and credit shocks; and explains why identical price movements generate markedly different volume elasticities across cycles and sub-markets.