전세보증금 미반환 이슈가 시장 국면별 전세가격에 미치는 영향 - 위계적 구조 기반 분석을 중심으로

This study empirically examines the impact of Jeonse deposit non-return risk on Jeonse prices in 66 municipal jurisdictions of the Seoul metropolitan area, distinguishing between rising and declining market phases. Jeonse, a unique Korean rental system, faces growing risks due to landlords’ liquidity issues, price volatility, and information asymmetry. Using 622,116 multi-unit housing transactions from the past five years, the study applies two-way ANOVA, intra-class correlation, and hierarchical linear modeling (HLM). In the rising phase, the Jeonse-to-sale ratio showed a significant negative effect on prices, while warranty accident numbers were negative but not significant. Regional heterogeneity was observed in random slope models. Tenant right registration applications and valid registrations had positive or stabilizing effects, suggesting institutional safeguards supported prices. In the declining phase, the Jeonse-to-sale ratio remained negative, warranty accidents were negative but regionally variable, and valid registrations had significant negative effects, reflecting demand contraction. News article counts were not significant in either phase. Findings reveal that the same factor can produce opposite effects depending on the market phase, highlighting structural complexity and regional heterogeneity. Policy implications call for region-based risk management and market structure improvements beyond damage compensation measures.