풋옵션을 활용한 주택미분양 해소 방안에 관한 연구

Recently the persistent accumulation of unsold housing units across South Korea, excluding select high-demand areas such as Seoul, has emerged as a structural challenge with wide-ranging economic, financial, and social consequences. This phenomenon not only signals inefficiencies in housing supply and demand dynamics but also threatens the viability of construction firms, weakens investor confidence, and increases the risk of financial instability through exposure to depreciating real estate assets. Without timely and targeted intervention, the unsold housing crisis could lead to cascading effects across the construction sector, financial institutions, and broader macroeconomic indicators. In response to this urgent issue, this paper proposes a novel policy framework centered on a put option-based resale mechanism. Under this model, housing buyers are granted the contractual right to request repurchase of their property from designated option sellers, thereby introducing a form of downside protection and liquidity assurance into the housing market. The mechanism is designed to stimulate the resale of unsold housing units, reduce inventory burdens, and restore consumer confidence, all while minimizing direct fiscal outlays by the government. The paper critically examines the limitations of relying solely on private vendors to offer put options. In periods of systemic housing price decline, private vendors face elevated risks, including mass option exercises that can trigger severe liquidity shortages, capital losses, and potential threats to their going-concern status. These risks often lead vendors to adopt conservative pricing strategies—such as high option premiums and steep resale discounts—that reduce the attractiveness of the program to buyers and hinder the overall effectiveness of the policy. Moreover, the perceived counterparty risk associated with private entities further erodes trust, limiting buyer participation and market impact. To overcome these constraints, the study advocates for a hybrid financing model that integrates public sector capital with private investment. Public involvement—through co-investment in asset purchase vehicles such as housing rental REITs—can stabilize capital structures, reduce financing costs via government-backed loan guarantees, and improve expected returns through tax incentives. These measures not only enhance the credibility and financial resilience of the put option system but also broaden its accessibility to a wider range of housing consumers, including those in lower-value or less liquid markets. The paper presents a broad range of risk management strategies for private vendors, such as leveraging AI-based property valuation models to determine fair option prices, creating asset purchase vehicles in partnership with financial institutions to ensure liquidity, arranging risk-sharing mechanisms with insurers to mitigate capital loss exposure, and implementing Early Warning Systems (EWS) to monitor property values and buyer creditworthiness in real time. These tools are essential for maintaining operational stability and ensuring the long-term sustainability of the put option mechanism. Public institutions participating in this scheme stand to benefit from new revenue streams, including option sales fees, guarantee fees, and dividends or capital gains from asset purchase vehicle investments. The associated risks are considered manageable, particularly when institutions collaborate with private operators through governance councils that oversee prudent asset selection and exclude structurally vacant or low-demand units. Temporary capital losses incurred during the holding period might be covered through rental income and eventual market stabilization, making permanent losses rare. EWS tools further support strategic fund allocation and timely execution of repurchase obligations. Ultimately, the proposed put option-based resale policy—anchored in robust public-private collaboration—offers a scalable, market-sensitive, and fiscally efficient solution to the unsold housing crisis. It promotes housing market stability, enhances residential welfare, and fosters renewed confidence among housing consumers. By enabling efficient inventory clearance, supporting capital market innovation, and expanding access to secure housing options, this approach contributes meaningfully to the long-term resilience and inclusiveness of South Korea’s housing ecosystem.