아파트 가격 상승 요인별 금융시스템 안전성에 대한 영향 분석

This study empirically analyzes the effects of apartment price increases on the macroeconomy, bank soundness, and financial system stability by distinguishing the underlying drivers—aggregate demand, monetary expansion, and housing demand and supply shocks—using a sign-restricted structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model. The results show that aggregate demand and monetary expansion shocks lead to higher consumption and stock prices, along with improved financial stability. In contrast, housing demand shocks, while temporarily improving banks’ return on assets (ROA) through a surge in household lending, result in a deterioration of banks’ capital adequacy (BIS ratio) and an increase in the Financial Stress Index (FSI). These negative effects may be further amplified by banks’ pursuit of higher profits. Meanwhile, housing supply shocks enhance financial stability by channeling funds into the stock market and improving banks’ BIS ratios. These findings highlight that the macroeconomic and financial implications of rising apartment prices vary significantly depending on the nature of the underlying shocks. Accordingly, policy responses should be based on a careful and comprehensive analysis of the sources of asset price movements. Furthermore, given the potential role of banks as amplifiers of shocks, there is a need to consider macroprudential regulation to mitigate such risks.