DeRiskbeta: Comparative quantitative risk assessment of fuel oil, LNG, methanol, and hydrogen on a 170 m RoPax ferry

To support global decarbonisation, the maritime industry is increasingly adopting alternative fuels such as liquefied natural gas (LNG), methanol, ammonia, and hydrogen. While these fuels offer environmental benefits by reducing emissions, compared to conventional marine fuels they also introduce significant safety hazards. These hazards include higher flammability, explosion potential, and toxicity. This study presents a comparative Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of fuel oil, LNG, methanol, and hydrogen on a 170-metre RoPax ferry, evaluating both individual and societal risks. Using the DeRiskbeta tool, fuel-specific hazards have been assessed and integrated with historical casualty data from non-fuel-related events to derive overall results. The results indicate that hydrogen presents the greatest fuel-specific risk, with a Potential Loss of Life (PLL) approximating 5.4E-03 fatalities per ship-year, primarily due to its high explosion potential. LNG follows, with a PLL approximating 2.1E-03, whereas methanol and fuel oil show a compara-tively lower risk of 1.2E-04 and 3.3E-05, respectively. While all fuels meet the IMO’s individual risk acceptance criteria, for hydrogen and LNG, calculating societal risk illustrates the potential for high-fatality events that would not be identified by calculation of indi-vidual risk. This study underscores the importance of integrating societal risk into safety evaluations.