대한항공-아시아나항공 합병 이후 수익성 전망 - 2019-2024년 연결재무제표 기반 DEA-Simar-Wilson 및 프로포마 분석 -

The airline industry has long played a pivotal role in global transportation networks and national economies, yet it remains highly sensitive to external shocks such as fluctuations in oil prices, exchange rates, safety regulations, and liberalization policies. The COVID-19 pandemic brought about an unprecedented collapse in international passenger demand, leading to a severe deterioration of carriers’ financial structures. From 2020 to 2021, airlines experienced large-scale suspension of operations and underutilization of assets, which resulted in a sharp decline in efficiency and heightened structural instability in the industry. Although subsequent years saw partial recovery in demand, increases in average fares, and the gradual resumption of international routes, profitability continued to fluctuate under persistent uncertainty. Within this transitional context, the merger between Korean Air and Asiana Airlines constituted more than a corporate strategy; it represented a structural reconfiguration of the national aviation market with significant implications for competition, consumer welfare, and aviation policy. Accordingly, a rigorous empirical assessment of the merger’s potential efficiency and profitability effects was warranted. The purpose of this study is to empirically evaluate the impact of the merger on efficiency and profitability and to forecast future financial performance under alternative scenarios. To achieve this objective, financial and industry data from 2019 to 2024 were analyzed using a multi-stage empirical framework. First, Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) was employed to measure the relative efficiency of the two airlines prior to and following the merger. Second, to overcome DEA’s limitations in accounting for exogenous factors, the Simar-Wilson bootstrap truncated regression was conducted to statistically examine the determinants of efficiency change. Third, a pro forma model was constructed using consolidated financial data as of 2024 in order to estimate operating profits from 2025 to 2027 across scenarios reflecting both revenue-enhancing and cost-saving factors. This methodological integration enabled a comprehensive assessment that combines analytical rigor with predictive validity. The empirical results yielded three major findings. First, DEA revealed that efficiency deteriorated significantly during 2020 and 2021 due to the pandemic shock but began to recover gradually from 2022 onward. This suggests that the merger could further enhance performance through economies of scale and scope. Second, the Simar-Wilson regression identified debt ratio, fuel cost-to-revenue ratio, competition intensity from low-cost carriers, the share of international Available Seat Kilometers (ASK), and a pandemic dummy variable as significant external determinants of efficiency change. These results indicate that the merger effects were not confined to mere scale expansion but materialized through structural adjustments and interactions with dynamic market conditions. Third, the pro forma analysis projected that, depending on the scenario, the merged airline’s operating profit would increase by KRW 300 billion to KRW 900 billion annually from 2025 to 2027. This growth was attributed to enhanced network connectivity, diversification of ancillary revenues, joint maintenance and procurement, and the integration of headquarters and IT systems, which together drove sustained profitability improvements. The academic contribution of this study lies in the integrated application of DEA, Simar-Wilson regression, and pro forma analysis to empirically evaluate the outcomes of a large-scale airline merger. This framework provides a robust methodological basis that combines efficiency analysis with forward-looking financial forecasting. From a managerial perspective, the findings offer concrete evidence on the magnitude and drivers of merger effects, suggesting that airlines should prioritize projects with immediate cash flow benefits in the early stages of integration, while simultaneously pursuing network optimization and ancillary revenue expansion to strengthen long-term profitability. From a policy perspective, regulators should closely monitor consumer welfare indicators—including fares, capacity, connectivity, punctuality, and regional accessibility—while also developing flexible regulatory guidelines that allow carriers to respond to external shocks such as fuel price volatility and currency fluctuations. In conclusion, the merger between Korean Air and Asiana Airlines was shown to enhance both efficiency and profitability, though the extent and durability of its impact will ultimately depend on the effectiveness of integration strategies and the alignment of regulatory frameworks. This study contributes to understanding the post-pandemic restructuring of the airline industry and provides valuable insights for scholarly research, managerial decision-making, and policy deliberation in the field of aviation management.