전출입지역의 부동산가격 차이가 인구이동에 미치는 영향 : 서울시 대도시권이동 패턴을 중심으로

This study aims to examine the patterns of population migration centered around the Seoul metropolitan area from 2015 to 2023, with a focus on fluctuations in housing prices. Migration patterns were categorized into intra-district, inter-district (within Seoul), and inter-provincial movements. An empirical analysis was conducted using a logistic regression model that incorporated the individual attributes of migrating households and interaction terms. The analysis revealed that population movement within Seoul is influenced by the apartment sales prices and the jeonse-to-sale price ratio of the district of origin, with housing and education being the primary drivers. As apartment sales prices in the origin district increased, most households showed a tendency to move to other districts within Seoul, while the probability of moving to other provinces decreased. However, during periods of rising jeonse-to-sale price ratios, a tendency to move to other regions was observed, identifying soaring jeonse (lump-sum deposit) prices as a primary cause of population outflow from Seoul. In terms of migration patterns by life-cycle stage, it was found that different generations exhibit distinct residential settlement conditions due to varying motivations for moving. Through this study, we propose the necessity of establishing differentiated, life-cycle-specific policies for effective price stabilization measures during periods of rising apartment prices.