경영자 이익예측치가 주가지연에 미치는 영향: 중국 기업을 중심으로

[Purpose] This study examines the impact of management earnings forecasts on stock price delay in Chinese listed companies. Specifically, it investigates how forecast disclosure, forecast error, and forecast bias influence the degree of stock price delay following forecast announcements. [Methodology] Using a sample of 22,927 firm－year observations from A－share companies listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges between 2009 and 2023, financial and forecast data were obtained from the China Stock Market & Accounting Research(CSMAR) database. Stock price delay was measured following the methods of Hou and Moskowitz(2005) and Callen et al.(2013). [Findings] The results show that firms disclosing management forecasts experience significantly lower stock price delay. Forecast error has no significant association with stock price movements, except among non－state－owned enterprises. Forecast bias(either optimistic or pessimistic) generally does not affect stock price delay; however, firms with overly optimistic forecasts exhibit higher delay after announcements. This suggests that investors tend to underreact to overly positive forecast information. [Implications] Overall, this study contributes to the literature by providing novel evidence on the relationship between management forecast characteristics and stock price delay in China. The findings highlight how the credibility and nature of forecast disclosures influence the efficiency of information incorporation into stock prices.