통제집단합성법을 활용한 수도권 2기 신도시 개발 정책효과 분석: 김포, 파주, 양주 지역을 대상으로

This study evaluates whether the development of the second-phase New Towns in the Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA), particularly - Gimpo, Paju, Yangju - has effectively contributed to the policy objective of population decentralization. Using regional population data from 1995 to 2022, the Synthetic Control Method is applied to compare new town areas with non-treated region Among the ten designated second-phase new towns, Gimpo, Paju, and Yangju were selected as treatment units, with the first year of resident occupancy set as the intervention point. The donor pool was composed of other cities and counties in the SMA, excluding urban districts (si and gu) within Incheon Metropolitan City and Gyeonggi Province. The empirical results show that Gimpo experienced statistically significant population inflows in most post-treatment periods compared to the synthetic control group, except in the treatment year. Paju exhibited a statistically significant effect only in the treatment year, while Yangju showed an opposite pattern, suggesting that population inflows would have been greater in the absence of new town development. Robustness checks were conducted using two approaches, confirming the consistency of the results across all three cases. This study demonstrates that the population decentralization effects of second-phase new towns vary across regions and suggests that accessibility to Seoul and transportation infrastructure are key determinants of performance differences. Furthermore, by applying the Synthetic Control Method to new town policy evaluation, this study proposes a quantitative analytical framework that can be utilized for future spatial policy assessments.