데이터 처리 기술과 머신러닝 기반 발전량 예측 시스템 성능 향상 분석

As renewable energy penetration continues to increase, the output variability and forecasting uncertainty of photovoltaic generation have emerged as major operational risks in power systems. This study establishes a sensor-based data quality control procedure to ensure the reliability of meteorological data collected at a PV plant. For temperature, humidity, and wind speed, a four stage QC process physical range check, persistence check, step change check, and median filtering was applied. Solar radiation, which exhibits strong temporal and distributional characteristics, was processed using a three-stage QC procedure consisting of physical range, step change, and frequency distribution checks. Using the quality-controlled meteorological data, PV generation forecasting was performed with SVM and XGBoost models. As a result, the MAPE values improved to 6.32% for SVM and 6.08% for XGBoost after QC application. The findings confirm that meteorological data quality control significantly enhances PV forecasting accuracy and can support future strategies for distributed energy resource management, curtailment mitigation, and power system risk reduction.