출산율을 사회통합의 대리지표로 본 실업–자살 관계의 이질성

Low fertility is a policy problem that requires resolution. It also operates as an outcome that proxies low social trust, weak social capital, and dysfunctional social structures. Prior studies have typically treated fertility as the dependent variable, which makes it difficult to see how fertility functions as an independent variable. I argue that fertility can be entered as a proxy for a society’s level of integration and its maladaptive structures. Using macro-level panel data on 179 countries, I analyze the effects of unemployment and the total fertility rate on suicide. I find that in countries with higher fertility, the adverse effect of unemployment on suicide is weaker. This pattern remains robust when I substitute youth unemployment for the overall unemployment rate. In 2023, South Korea’s total fertility rate was about 0.7 births per woman. The findings of this study suggest that Korean society is more susceptible to economic shocks such as rising unemployment. Policymakers should therefore manage unemployment not only within labor and macroeconomic policy but also as a core component of suicide prevention. It is also necessary to raise fertility to at least an adequate level to address the underlying problem.