서울시 주택재개발 사업진행 영향요인 분석 : 도시정비법 개정을 중심으로

This study examines the factors that influence the progress of Seoul’s urban redevelopment projects. At the decision stage, a logistic regression of the cancellation of district designation shows a higher probability of cancellation when the district apartment presale prices and the Basic Livelihood Security recipients’ share are lower, older housing share is higher, and no redevelopment association exists. The duration of the association formation is shortened by larger membership and greater interest-rate fluctuations at the time of establishment of the committee, but increases with higher simultaneous economic growth, more unsold housing at the time of association’s authorization, and the introduction of new policies. In the planning phase, the duration is longer due to larger membership, higher district presale prices, higher interest-rate fluctuation at project-implementation approval, higher inflation at project approval, faster land price growth at management-plan approval, and new policies. In larger site area, more unsold housing at management-plan approval, increased inflation, and the new policy lengthen the construction phase. To increase the availability of high-quality housing, policies must be reevaluated.