연구개발 집약도와 주식 과대평가

This study empirically examines the relationship between research and development (R&D) expenditures and overvaluation (FSE) among publicly listed firms in South Korea. Following the valuation decomposition framework of Rhodes-Kropf et al. (2005), FSE is measured as the difference between a firm’s observed market value and its intrinsic value implied by financial fundamentals. The analysis is based on a panel dataset of 10,297 firm-year observations covering the period from 2012 to 2022. The empirical analysis employs ordinary least squares (OLS) and Huber robust regression models while controlling for a comprehensive set of firm-level characteristics. To further assess robustness, the study conducts sub-sample analyses based on audit quality (Big 4 versus non-Big 4 auditors) and dividend policy (dividend-paying versus non-paying firms). Potential endogeneity concerns are addressed using two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimation with instrumental variables, along with two-way clustered standard errors. The results show that R&D intensity is positively and significantly associated with future overvaluation. Importantly, this finding should be interpreted as indicating that firms with higher R&D intensity tend to be overvaluation—implying that they are, on average, more overvalued or less undervalued relative to fundamentals—rather than experiencing larger misvaluation magnitudes. This association remains robust across alternative model specifications and subsample analyses based on audit quality and dividend policy. Further analyses reveal meaningful heterogeneity across industries. In particular, the positive association between R&D intensity and overvaluation is attenuated in high-tech industries, where R&D activities are more prevalent and investors are likely more familiar with innovation-driven business models. This suggests that industry-specific information environments moderate how R&D-related uncertainty is reflected in firm valuation. Overall, this study contributes to the literature by providing direct, firm-level evidence on how R&D investment is associated with valuation outcomes in capital markets characterized by intangible assets and information frictions. By focusing on valuation error levels rather than return-based anomalies, the study offers nuanced insights into the role of accounting disclosure, information processing, and institutional context in shaping the valuation of innovation, with important implications for investors, regulators, and policymakers in emerging markets.