생애소득분포를 활용한 소득수준별 연금제도의조세정책 및 재정정책 효과 분석

[Purpose]This study aims to analyze the effects of government－implemented tax and fiscal support policies on the pension system across different income levels, utilizing lifetime income distribution as the analytical framework. [Methodology]Based on data from the Korea Fiscal Panel Survey, this study derives the lifetime income distribution of pension subscribers by income percentile. Using this distribution, it estimates the effects of tax and fiscal policies on both the public pension (National Pension Scheme) and private pensions by income level. The analysis focuses on two indicators：the absolute policy effect (in monetary terms) and the relative indicator, the benefit－to－contribution ratio. [Findings]The results show that under fiscal policy, as the income level of pension beneficiaries increases, the benefit－to－contribution ratio declines, while the absolute monetary benefit increases. When the opportunity cost of contributions is deducted, the net effects remain positive across all income groups, with benefit ratios exceeding one, though the decline is relatively greater for higher－income groups. In contrast, the effects of tax policy increase with income and surge sharply in the top 10%, indicating that benefits are concentrated among high－income earners. Additionally, when the pension benefit period is extended, both the fiscal policy effects and benefit ratios generally rise, with the combined effects of tax and fiscal policies being particularly significant for the top 91－100% income group. [Implications]These findings indicate that, when considering lifetime income distribution, the current pension system provides relatively larger absolute benefits to higher－income groups. As life expectancy increases and the pension benefit period extends, these effects become more pronounced. This suggests the need for policy discussions to improve equity and fiscal sustainability of the pension system, including a review of tax support structures, strengthening support for low－income groups, and re－establishing the roles of public and private pensions. Unlike prior studies that mainly emphasized the advantages to lower－income groups using relative measures such as the benefit ratio, this study directly estimates absolute policy effects to assess their impact across all income levels. It highlights the importance of considering both absolute and relative indicators—especially afte－tax effects—when designing and evaluating pension system policies.