동행지수 순환변동치 활용한 대,중소기업 간 경기변동(Business Cycle) 비교 분석

This study aims to identify stylized facts by comparing the business cycles of large firms and SMEs through the estimation of cyclical components of the Composite Coincident Index, under the perspective that their characteristics and responses to economic shocks may differ. To this end, conventional time series analysis is conducted, and the findings are summarized as follows. First, the co-movement of business cycles between large firms and SMEs is more pronounced during periods of economic expansion. In particular, such co-movement is recently weakening, accompanied by increasing volatility. Second, the business cycle of large firms appears to drive the business cycles of SMEs. These findings remain largely consistent even when classified by economic phase or period. Third, an analysis of the distribution, cycle, and amplitude of business cycles reveals that large firms exhibit relatively greater volatility than SMEs. This trend is becoming more pronounced in recent years. Fourth, while large firms are generally more sensitive to economic shocks than SMEs, their responses vary depending on the type of shock. Specifically, large firms are relatively more sensitive to demand and monetary policy shocks, whereas SMEs are more sensitive to supply shocks. The above results suggest that, as the influence of large firms on SMEs is recently diminishing while the economic volatility of large firms is increasing, enhancing the growth potential and competitiveness of the SME sector may be crucial for stabilizing the Korean economy. Furthermore, given the heterogeneous characteristics of business cycles and the differentiated responses to economic shocks between large firms and SMEs, a more fine-tuned policy response is required.